2024年春节后国内市场
宏观经济：
春节后，CPI和PPI较去年5 - 6月持续下跌2-3%，经济处于内生动力自我修复中。
政府上周宣布，他们将加快消费速度，购买大量基础设施来刺激经济。资金似乎能更充足地流入购买大宗乳制品原料。
微观经济:
餐饮服务方面的状况，最终产品的销售价格较去年持续涨价到30%，原料库存有所改善。尤其是黄油库存曾在春节前见底。
鲜奶产量将太充裕仍是拖累中国全年全脂价格的最大问题，黄油/AMF消费量不会明显增长量。受限于餐饮连锁的门店恢复。
2024年1月猪肉价格环比下降-17.3%。它接下来将进入淡季，这将导致乳清/SWP/底蛋白乳清渗透粉价格至少下降-10%。鸡肉价格保持在一个平衡的位置。
乳品替代品价格处于较大下降位置，此类消费物价目前处于几年的低位。
春节期间乳制品供应非常充足，节后礼盒液奶库存还是比价高。 未来几个月供应面保持供大于需求。
所以我们对价格走势的预测是(下一个GDT): FCMP下跌-3% - 15% (FAS 3100美元- 3000美元，我认为这是未来最终甚至2750美元接受的价格)，SMP价格区间:+/ - 10% (FAS 2700-2850美元)，黄油:5700-620美元，AMF下跌-5950- 6100美元AMF
无水奶油 （-5，950- 6，100dollars ）
Hereby let us see the Chinese Market:
Macroeconomy side
After Chinese new year ,CPI & PPI were kept going down 2-3% vs last May- June ,the endogenous dynamics grow was repaired itself.
Goverment announced last week they will push the consuming speed and buy a lot basic infrastructure to stimulate.Money seems more sufficient to flow into buying bulk dairy Ingredients.
Microeconomy :Food service side status ,the final products was raised the selling price continiously to 30% compared to last year ,stock was improved.
Enough Fresh milk will be still a big problem to drag the FCMP price in China in the whole year , and butter /AMF consuming quantity will not be obvioulsly growing .
Pork price -17.3% in Jan,2024 . And it will go to weak season which will connect to Whey/SWP/permeate price going down at least -10%. Chicken price stay at a balance position.
Dairy products were suficient in Spring Festival and Supply side seems bigger than their demand the next few months.
So our forecast on price trend is ( next GDT ): FCMP down -3% - 15 % (FAS 3,100 dollars- 3,000 dollars I think it is the final or even 2,750 dollars accepted in future ) ,SMP price range : +/ - 10% ( FAS 2700-2850 dollars ) ,butter ： 5700-620 dollars ， AMF down -5950- 6100 dollars ,
